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After a successful preview for Game 3, Mark Ross is back to share his thoughts on the crucial NBA Finals Game 4.

Well, we were quite successful in our bets for Game 3. The Boston Celtics took it 116-100 in front of their boisterous home crowd. In doing so they have made themselves the favourites to take home the silverware. If you read the previous article and took Boston at 3/5 to win the game, or even with a minus 3.5 handicap, you will have woken up extremely happy. Further, Jaylen Brown finished with over 3.5 assists and over 2.5 threes made. Boston also held the Warriors to under 104.5 points, which you could have had at 20/21. A nice win for those who followed along. Unfortunately, we didn’t hit on our favourite bet builder as the Golden State Warriors couldn’t pull out the win, but we still have Game 4. Speaking of Game 4, let’s have a look and what we can expect in the crucial fourth meeting of these two teams.

Game 3 was a huge win for the Boston Celtics. As mentioned in the previous article, the team that wins Game 3 when a Finals is tied at 1-1, goes on to win 82.1% of the time. That is a colossal number. By winning Game 3 Boston now know that the Warriors are going to have to play another two games in front of the Boston crowd if they hope to extend the series. When it gets to this crunch time of the series, the more home games the better. Nothing will pull along a tiring team more than their home support cheering them on. After that win, Boston is now 4/9 favourites to win the whole thing and Golden State has dropped to 7/4. Don’t count the Warriors out though. Their ability to go on a scoring run is second to none and they are more than capable of winning the next three games to lift yet another Championship.

Game 3 WAS a huge win for Boston, but it wasn’t without its worries. Turnovers continue to plague the Celtics as they seem to be doing their best to hand Golden State victories. Despite being extremely talented defensively, Marcus Smart had another five turnovers in Game 3 bringing his total to ten in the last two games. It is never good turning the ball over. It’s especially not good turning the ball over when you have Steph Curry and Klay Thomson ready to take (and make the majority of the time) shots from anywhere on the court. Mixed in with the turnovers the Celtics missed free throws and allowed Golden State to go on their usual third-quarter scoring spree. The difference this time was that they stopped it quickly enough and then stepped up defensively in the fourth quarter and held the Warriors to eleven points.

Boston came into this series as the bigger and stronger team and they showed that in Game 3. 52 points in the paint speak for themselves. Robert Williams was playing on one leg and was still able to dominate and finished the game with 10 rebounds. Golden State has the big players to put into the game, the only issue is they can’t score, and it’s easy for Boston to defend against just Steph Curry and Klay Thomson taking pot shots from wherever they get space. If Golden State wants to keep their chances alive they need to find some scoring for their bigger guys. Draymond Green, for example, we all know he can get stuck in and mix it with the best of them but he only made one out of four shots on Wednesday night. It’s the finals Draymond, your team needs more.

Heading into Game 4, the Celtics are the favourites once again. To win Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead the Celtics are currently priced at 11/20 on the money line and are at 5/6 to win by more than 3.5. So far every game in the series has been settled by at least 12 points, so Boston at -3.5 seems to make perfect sense. Golden State however is not going to let this series slip by them and is currently priced at 13/10 to level the series. If the first three games can predict anything for Game 4 then the Warriors will win and win comfortably. Even if you think it will be close but the Warriors will win, you can get them at 29/20 to win by two clear points. That’s great odds for a Championship-winning juggernaut team like the Golden State Warriors.

Jayson Tatum has been finding his groove a bit more as the series has been going on and in Game 3 he finished with 26 points, six rebounds, and nine assists. If, like many other people around, you think he will equal that tally in Game 4 it is available at 17/2. 17/2 for one of the best players in the league to have a good game in front of his home crowd in the NBA Finals. Nothing is ever easy money but this feels pretty close.

Golden State is wounded, wounded but still dangerous. Despite it being three comfortable victories for the teams that have won so far, it has been a close series. At the rate Golden State can pile on the points close games are ideal for them. If Klay Thomson can continue his form from Game 3 into Game 4 the Warriors will be in with a great chance of levelling the series. Steph Curry has shown throughout that he is the best player on the court and is the favourite for the Finals MVP. Has a player won the Finals MVP and been on the losing side? If not, Steph could be the first to do it. Ultimately though he would much rather his team would go on and win. A big Game 4 performance is needed then. At 15/2 odds you can get Steph Curry to lead his team to at least a two-point victory and to rack up over 29.5 points and over 5.5 assists in the process. Good odds if like me you fancy the Warrior’s chances of levelling the series.

Game 4 tips off at 2am on Saturday 11th June 2022.

Odds are correct at the time of posting

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