F1 Tips: Mexican Grand Prix – Checo to delight home crowd5 min read
This weekend’s Formula One race comes from Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguezin Mexico; we go looking for some value F1 tips for the weekend.
Lewis Hamilton is almost certain to be crowned World Champion for the fourth time. To clinch the 2017 world title, Hamilton only has to finish 5th or above in Mexico City irrelevant of Sebastian Vettel’s finishing position. Sebastian Vettel, conversely, has to finish in the top two in Mexico and hope that Hamilton finishes sixth or lower. This is the only way he can take the title fight to the penultimate round in Brazil.
Hamilton to finish claim the world championship in style?
Despite winning last year’s Mexican Grand Prix, I believe the Mercedes will be the second-best car in Mexico this weekend. This is largely to do with the altitude at the circuit, meaning that the teams will be running maximum downforce trim. The teams also did this in both Hungary and Monaco where Ferrari dominated.
Sebastian Vettel is in a position where he has to race for the win in order to keep his title hopes alive, whereas Hamilton does not need to take any risks. With this in mind, opposing favourite Hamiton and picking Vettel to finish the weekend atop the podium offers the best value.
Tip: Sebastian Vettel to win
Checo to rack up a good points haul
The Force India pairing showed good midfield pace in Austin cementing their 4th place in the Constructor’s Championship ahead of Williams. Last weekend Esteban Ocon came out ahead of teammate Sergio ‘Checo’ Pérez, but not without Checo complaining that he was being held up by the 21-year-old Frenchman. With this being Checo’s home race, he’ll be desperate to get the better of Ocon. With home advantage, Pérez is my pick for a top six finish since Daniel Ricciardo is expected to take a grid penalty. This could free up a position in the top six, assuming Danny can’t emulate Max Verstappen’s drive through the pack of last weekend.
Tip: Sergio Pérez top six finish
A war of attrition?
The attrition rate at the Mexican Grand Prix has not been particularly high for the past couple of seasons. In fact, barring accidents there has been just one mechanical break-down in each of the previous two races in Mexico City. This could well be due to the high down-force setup of the cars meaning that the power units are not being pushed to the limit. So, seeing that the line for the number of classified drivers being set at 16.5 is somewhat baffling. Bearing all this in mind, I made over 16.5 classified drivers favourite, however under 16.5 is the favourite in our market.
Tip: Number of Classified Drivers – Over 16.5
Action gets underway from the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguezin with FP1 at 4pm on Friday. Qualifying starts at 7pm on Saturday. The Race gets underway at 7pm on Sunday; all live on Sky Sports F1.