Peterborough United might be 17 points above Oxford United in the League One standings, but the difference between the two sides in terms of performance levels is nowhere near as grand as that gulf would suggest.

The stats

Expected Goals (xG) is a metric that judges the quality of chance creation and Peterborough average 1.3 xG For per game and Oxford, 1.15; the Posh average 1.32 xG Against per game and for their opponents, it’s 1.1.

Plus, it’s worth considering that the main reason Peterborough are in the top six is because they scored 19 of their first 72 shots, which is a high and unsustainable rate; by contrast, Oxford scored just seven goals from their first 82 in that same opening period.

Had the League One season started in mid-September, the Yellows would only be two points below their hosts.

Plus, manager Karl Robinson is beginning to win over supporters; since moving John Mousinho into a holding role, his side have accrued 16 points from nine, thanks partly to Cameron Brannagan dictating play with more authority.


By contrast, Peterborough boss Steve Evans is becoming a somewhat divisive figure.

Steve Evans Divides Opinion

He is willing to publicly criticize individuals like striker Matt Godden, their top league goalscorer with nine and wide man Marcus Maddison, who has been their most creative player over the previous four seasons.

After a 1-1 draw at Coventry, a relatively even game that the Posh perhaps shaded in terms of chances, he claimed that his side should have won 5-0, then blamed defender Rhys Bennett for slipping in the lead-up to their equalizer.

The standard protocol for managers is to support their players if they are putting in maximum effort, but Evans veers away from that and his belligerent approach could interfere with the mood in the dressing room.

Oxford On The Up

Oxford, meanwhile, are more of a settled camp; Jamie Mackie gets through a lot of leg work up top which allows others to break ahead of him while Gavin Whyte, a Northern Ireland international, stretches play with his runs in from the right channel.

Skilful West Ham loanee Marcus Browne proved his prodigious talent with a brace in the recent 4-2 win over Rochdale while James Henry loves to make late runs into forward areas, bagging five in his last seven in all forms.

The Yellows have scored three or more goals in five of their last nine games in all competitions and in PE2, they could have yet more joy going forward.


Oxford to score Over 2.5 goals –

Read Gabriel’s Championship Preview here and League Two Preview here.


Odds are correct at the time of posting

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