The NFL keeps rolling and if anything keeps getting more exciting with tight games, tense finishes and records tumbling, so sit back and strap in for what will be another thriller in Week Four.
As mentioned last week, close finishes are becoming the norm, and in Week Three we had five games settled in the last minute or in overtime – including Justin Tucker booting the longest field goal in NFL history with a whopping 66-yarder lifting the Ravens over the Lions. With the help of the crossbar.
In all, 11 games across the week’s schedule ended up being settled by less than a score (defined as eight points) and that’s one to keep in mind with only one of our NFL Red Zone games having a team favoured by more than eight.
Five teams remain unbeaten, with the Raiders and Broncos still surprising us as they lead the way in the AFC West, which sees the Chiefs languishing at the foot of the table at 1-3 after losing against last week.
Kansas City are still joint Super Bowl favourites with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the defending champs also losing last week to the impressive LA Rams, who are now third favourites to go all the way at 8/1.
Tom Brady makes his eagerly-awaited return to the New England Patriots as the stand-out game of the week, but before that we’ve got another massive round of NFL Red Zone games, with the pick of the bunch below along with our usual selected touchdown multiple.
Chiefs @ Eagles
Chiefs coach Andy Reid has recovered from illness and faces his former team looking to become the first head coach to ever win 100 games with two different teams. Reid went 140-102-1 with the Philadelphia Eagles and is now 99-45-0 with the Chiefs – his 239 wins puts him fifth on the all-time list.
Last week’s defeat to the Chargers means that things are now serious for the 1-3 Chiefs who sit bottom of a division that contains two unbeaten 3-0 sides. Patrick Mahomes and his offence have been unusually error-strewn with six turnovers in their last two games, so ball security will be top of their list this week.
Mahomes starts his 50th game on Sunday with already the most yards (15,092 and touchdowns (123) of any QB in their first 50 starts. He has a 39-10 record and he’d be just the second QB ever to win 40 of his first 50 starts with a victory in Philly.
Close games have been a theme for Mahomes with his last 10 starts all resulting in games being decided by six points or under, but with the Eagles joint last for takeaways this can finally be a game where the Chiefs can pull clear.
Mahomes has started the season with three TD passes in every game, and against the Eagles on a short week that run can continue in a bounceback win for the Chiefs
Best bet: Mahomes to throw three TD passes at Evens
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Panthers @ Cowboys
The Carolina Panthers are a surprising 3-0 on the back of the NFL’s top defence, but now they have to try and contain Dak Prescott’s versatile offence that’s a top five unit so far.
It’s multi-dimensional too as Prescott threw 58 times for 403 yards in their first game before leaning on Ezekiel Elliott and the run game that’s averaged 179 yards in their last two games, both of which they won.
Carolina then may need some points, but they’ll have to do it without star dual threat running back Christian McCaffrey leaving rookie Chuba Hubbard to carry the load with QB Sam Darnold really needing to step up.
The Panthers’ defence leads the NFL in stopping the pass and the run, but with games against the Jets, Saints and Texans they’ve not yet had to deal with such a varied high-quality attack that Dallas can provide.
Carolina also lead the league in QB sacks so Prescott could be in for a rough ride, but if they can establish the run early they should be able to grind out a tough win here.
Best bet: Under 51.5 points at 21/20
Titans @ Jets
The Tennessee Titans are just cracking into gear and the winless New York Jets look likely to get run over in the process as all the signs point to another long season in the Big Apple.
Rookie QB Zach Wilson has seen more of the turf around the NFL than the end zone having been sacked 15 times while his stuttering offence has scored just two touchdowns. In case you were wondering, that’s not a ratio that will succeed in the NFL.
The Jets have only managed 20 points in three games and that average will just not get it done against an opposition containing Derrick Henry, who will see a lot of the ball on Sunday with receiver AJ Brown out and possibly Julion Jones joining him on the sidelines.
It’ll be a case of feeding Henry early and often as they usually do as road favourites – in nine such games Henry averages almost 150 yards per game and has five games with multiple scores. Look for something similar on Sunday.
Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will fill in at receiver for Brown and Jones, but Henry may also get more involvement in the passing game as he’s already had 86 receiving yards in the last two games. Tight end Anthony Firkser
Best bet: Derrick Henry over 100 rushing yards & TD at 11/10
Texans @ Bills
The Buffalo Bills are the biggest favourites of the week as 17.5-point fancies at home against the Houston Texans and their rookie QB Davis Mills
The Bills have had three turnovers in the last two games but haven’t got the strongest pass rush so Mills should have time but will still have to be careful not to give the ball away – as they’ll need some points to keep pace with Buffalo’s QB Josh Allen.
Allen has a TD pass in his last 14 games and has been in sparkling form as the Bills have run up 78 points in their last two outings to blast back into the Super Bowl conversation after a tough opening day defeat.
It should be another emphatic victory for the home side but maybe not by 18 points, possibly a two touchdown win is the limit here but Allen and the offence should get their points easily enough.
Best bet: Buffalo Bills to score over 32.5pts at 11/10
Red Zone TD multiple
Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry and Emmanuel Sanders to score TDs at 17/2
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts will have plenty to do against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Chiefs are the second worst team defending the run and Lamar Jackson recently danced through them, so Hurts can find his way into the end zone too.
Emmanuel Sanders had two TDs last week as his connection with Buffalo QB Josh Allen heats up – and the Bills will score plenty on Houston.
Derrick Henry will carry the load with the Titans losing their star receivers to face the lowly Jets, and Tennessee’s star running back will have no problem scoring again.