US Open Men’s Final Preview: Aces Markets Where Real Value Lies4 min read
The aces markets look to be where the value lies for Sunday’s US Open men’s final between Juan Martin Del Potro and Novak Djokovic…
Juan Martin Del Potro v Novak Djokovic (Sunday, 2100 BST)
Nine years and multiple wrist surgeries on from his sole Grand Slam title success, Juan Martin Del Potro is back in the US Open final.
Having dropped just the one set so far – to John Isner on a tie-break – there’s no doubt the giant Argentine, priced up at , has more than a puncher’s chance.
Djokovic favourite for a reason
Yet his opponent will start a firm favourite, Novak Djokovic being 4/9 to claim a 14th major title.
It’s hard to argue too much with that price. Djokovic has improved with every round and enters the final approaching something like top form.
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 8, 2018
Following two years of problems, Djokovic proved at Wimbledon he was back to a level capable of winning at this level and what we’ve seen so far in New York suggests he can repeat the trick.
He brings a 14-4 career head-to-head record into this clash – it’s 7-2 on outdoor hardcourts. Djokovic has won the last three meetings and has beaten Delpo twice at this tournament in the past without losing a set.
Overs in the total games market could be a smart punt
While the H2H again shows why Djokovic is the favourite, it also suggests the match will at least be competitive with Del Potro having won at least a set in seven of their last eight matches.
With that in mind, taking overs in the total games market – one set at 40.5 – is certainly worth considering.
Real value to be found in aces markets
Yet the real value for this match lies in the aces markets where Djokovic has undoubtedly been underrated.
Del Potro is just 1/25 to serve the most aces yet he’s managed to do so in just three of the pair’s 18 previous encounters. Djokovic was come out on top in 13 of them with two ties.
I accept that the Serb’s serve has been revamped somewhat since their last meeting following elbow problems but his ace rate in 2018 stands at 7.0